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If the price goes the wrong way immediately after the close then only your sell limit kicks in and you have a small stop loss so the loss is not too big. If the price immediately goes in to profit and keeps going then your Sell Stop kicks in. The best scenario, is when the price goes the wrong way for a bit, kicks in your Sell Limit and then turns your way kicking in the Sell Stop as well. Making it an overall riskless trade. We will work through a few examples in the course to explain it a bit better.
So how do we decide on take profits? There are several options here again. The simplest is to set your take profit at twice your stop loss, or twice the amount of pips in the candle you are trading from. This is the simplest, and works well.
But leaving take profit at a very high mark might mean your trade reverses on itself and you lose all your profit. The next method is to look at the market and find other important price ranges where there has been previous resistance and support, and set take profit on those lines. I like to split my trade in to three. And then put a trailing stop on it. The trailing stop should be the size of the candle you used to trade or larger.
So if things keep going in your direction you could hold the trade for weeks and keep profiting the entire way. These are actually two separate systems that can be traded on their own. So at that point we might want to wait for a lower low to confirm, or we can put our faith in the lower high and start looking for short positions. With the previous part of the system we were looking purely at horizontal price levels.
Now we are opening up diagonal trends as well. All we are looking for are clear lines where the market has turned. The above is an almost perfect example. You can see three consecutive points that if we draw a line in, the market turned sharply. I find that the sharper the turn, the stronger the trend line. Now when the market comes to that price again two things can happen. It can bounce again, or it can break through. We can take the bounce as an entry point, or if it breaks the trend line we can enter there as well.
You can enter during a candle without it needing to close since this system does not rely on candles. These trend lines can be found on highs or lows. Sometimes both, and then we start seeing patterns. Here are two examples of potential trade opportunities. This is my personal favourite of the patterns. If you come across a trend on the lows and highs that will lead to an eventual crossover, we call this a wedge.
In this case, it is a falling wedge because it is pointing down. As you can see, the market is getting squeezed and at some point it is going to break out and we would jump on that. Because the market is already so squeezed, we would not enter a trade that bounces off the trend line. When the trend line on the highs runs parallel to the trend line on the lows, we call this a channel. In this case it is a falling channel because it is trending down. Once a channel has been confirmed we can trade inside the channel or wait for a breakout.
That way we have a higher chance of a bigger trade. If the wedge or channel is moving long, they would be called a rising wedge or rising channel. If you come across a rising trend line on the lows, and a falling trend line on the highs, this is what we call a triangle. In a Doji candlestick, price is essentially unchanged. Hence, it represents market indecision. We trade it like a reversal signal, if there is a trend to reverse. Treat it as a signal to stand aside if there is no trend to reverse.
A Marubozu is the polar opposite of a Doji. Its opening price and closing price are the extrem ends of the candlestick. Visually, it is a block. A Marubozu that closes higher signifies powerful bullish strength while one that closes lower shows extreme bearishness. Again, the focus on the candle bodies looks for a real reversal, in this case, the second candle body fully engulfs the first and represents a strong reversal signal.
The Piercing Line and the Dark Cloud Cover refer to the bullish and bearish variants of the same two-bar pattern. Both the Hammer and the Hanging Man patterns look exactly the same. Both have a:. The difference is this. The Hammer pattern is found after a market decline and is a bullish signal. However, the Hanging Man appears as an ill-omen at the end of a bull run and is a bearish signal.
In candle-speak, a star refers to a candlestick with a small body that does not overlap with the preceding candle body. Since the candle bodies do not overlap, forming a star will always involve a gap. Thus, it is uncommon to find Morning Stars and Evening Stars in intraday charts.
Despite having a Japanese name, the Hikkake is not one of the classic candlestick patterns. However, it is an interesting pattern that illustrates the concept of trapped traders. Now that you are able to identify various actions by means of analysing candlesticks and what they mean, we can move on to the next section where you will learn about price action and how they work in strategies coupled with candlestick patterns.
A reversal pattern characterized by a gap followed by a Doji, which is then followed by another gap in the opposite direction. The shadows on the Doji must completely gap below or above the shadows of the first and third candle. The market must be in clearly defined uptrend.
The first candle is bullish. The second candle is bearish. The bearish candle engulfs the previous candle's body. The size of the candle being engulfed doesn't matter. Ignore the wicks. An even stronger signal occurs when the bearish candle engulfs the bodies of two or three previous candles.
Indicates a bearish trend may be beginning. This pattern must occur after a significant downtrend. It occurs when a small bearish candle is engulfed by a large bullish candle. This signals a possible reversal. An even stronger signal occurs when the bullish candle engulfs the bodies of two or three previous candles. A bearish reversal pattern that continues the uptrend with a long white body.
The next candle opens at a new high then closes below the midpoint of the body of the first candle. The pattern is more significant if the second candle's body is below the center of the previous body. Confirmation of the pattern is achieved when another black candle, of smaller size, forms after the second candle. The Doji is a warning sign of a pending reversal. The lack of a real body conveys a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers and the balance of power may be shifting.
The open and close are pretty much equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. A Doji where it opens and closes at or near its high. The candle ends up with a tall lower shadow and no body.
It is usually seen at the bottom of a move. More bullish than a hammer. A reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend bearish engulfing pattern or downtrend bullish engulfing pattern. The first candle is characterized by a small body, followed by a candle whose body completely engulfs the previous candle's body. Hammer candlesticks form when prices moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close well above the intracandle low.
The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. A hammer indicates that the market may be attempting to find a bottom, and that buyers are strengthening their position. If this candlestick occurs after a significant uptrend, then it is called a Hanging Man. The body can be clear or filled in. Hanging Man candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close well above the intracandle low.
If this candlestick forms during a decline, then it is called a Hammer. A two candle pattern that has a small body candle completely contained within the range of the previous body, and is the opposite color. Coming after a strong trend, this pattern indicates a decrease in momentum and possibly the end of the trend.
A one candle bullish reversal pattern. In a downtrend, the open is lower, then it trades higher, but closes near its open. A long candle represents a large move from open to close, where the length of the candle body is long. This candlestick has long upper and lower shadows with the Doji in the middle of the candle's trading range, clearly reflecting the indecision of traders.
A three candle bullish reversal pattern that is very similar to the Morning Star. This is a bullish pattern signifying a potential bottom. A three candle bullish reversal pattern consisting of three candlesticks: 1 A long-bodied black candle extending the current downtrend 2 A short middle candle that gapped down on the open. The star can be a bullish empty or a bearish filled in candle. A bullish two candle reversal pattern. During a downtrend: 1 The first candle is a long bear candle followed by a long bull candle.
This is a warning sign for sellers since a reversal to the upside might soon occur. A single candle pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open. It looks just like the Inverted Hammer except that it is bearish.
A shooting star can mark a top but is often retested. Candlesticks that have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that exceed the length of the body. A very good reversal signal and can be any color. Spinning tops signal indecision. The smaller the body, the less direction the market has. A bullish reversal pattern with two black bodies surrounding a white body. The closing prices of the two black bodies must be equal. A support price is apparent and the opportunity for prices to reverse is quite good.
A bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive black bodies where each candle closes near below the previous low, and opens within the body of the previous candle. A bullish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive white bodies, each with a higher close. Each should open within the previous body and the close should be near the high of the candle.
Two or more candlesticks with matching tops. They can be composed of real bodies or shadows. These occur on consecutive or nearby candles. Two or more candlesticks with matching bottom. Indicates a bearish trend is ending, and perhaps a reversal is in the works. Fundamental analysis of an instrument is when you look at the news relating to a currency or other instrument. Imagine the CEO of Vodaphone releases a statement that the company has been showing higher sales than expected with a lower cost than budgeted for.
We would see that financially things are looking even better than investors predicted which would make the stock more attractive. This would drive up the value of their stocks. We would not need to look at technical analysis to make a reasonable estimation. There are several things that we look at to make predictions using Fundamental analysis.
Remember, there are no guarantees, but by using fundamental analysis we can increase our likelihood of success. Probably one of the most important indicators which can reflect the overall health of an economy. The GDP is the final value of all goods and services produced in an economy. This is why it is so important, as this number represents the rate of growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
Keep in mind that since it represents a rate of growth in prices and therefore a rate of growth in the economy, it also shows an increase in inflation. The GDP reflects the performance of an economy within the last quarter. The change in the number gives a good indication about the growth of the respective economy. If the release is positive then this is good news for the economy as a whole.
Whereas a negative result is bad news. If the rate of growth is very high it represents a fast growing economy, and this can be good or bad for the markets. If high growth comes without an expectation of increased inflation then investors generally remain optimistic about future growth and the market generally rallies up. If the growth rate is too high and considered unsustainable without excessive inflation, we sometimes see a negative reaction to the market as they expect monetary policies to play a role and slow the economy down.
As with many releases, the actual outcome is often less important than the difference between the expected outcome. This will be covered more in the strategies section. Quarterly estimates of GDP are released monthly and advanced incomplete estimates that are subject to further revision are released. The dates also vary, so it is important to track them using an economic calendar. The most important role of a central bank is to supply capital to the commercial banks who then provide capital to the consumers.
This makes sure that the banking system has sufficient liquidity for consumers to borrow money. The central bank will charge interest on the loans it provides and this affects the interest rate that the banks charge to the consumer. The central banks use the rate it charges commercial banks for loans as a mechanism to influence the cost of borrowing in the economy and hence the money flow. For example, if the central bank wants to increase consumer spending to boost the economy it can lower the short term rates it charges the commercial banks, which in turn lowers the rates for the end consumer.
This means that consumers have more money to spend, which results in a boost to the economy. If they want to tighten the economy to reduce inflation, it can increase interest rates which makes loans more expensive. This reduces available funds for the consumer and tightens the economy. Central banks can also affect the currency value.
To increase the value of a currency, it can purchase currency and hold it in reserve which decreases the supply of a currency and hence increases the value. The opposite is also true, by selling its reserves back to the market the supply increases, which reduces the currency value. This is an index used to measure the prices that producers receive for their goods. Simply, it is giving us a measure of the price that producers receive for their goods. It is generally reported in the 2nd week of the month and is also expressed as an index value of This index is normally comprised of over 10 sub-indices and all are giving a weighted average to compile the final index value.
It excludes the very volatile industries such as food and energy to avoid providing distorted values of the index value. The consumer Price index measures the cost to buy a fixed basket of goods and services. This is basically a measure for consumers about how the price of the same fixed basket of goods and services have changed over a specified period of time.
Since it is representing a change in prices, it is therefore giving us an indication of the inflation being experienced in a country. A higher inflation means that that the Central bank will lead to interest rate increases to control the money supply and hence this leads to an appreciation in your currency. As a result by monitoring and comparing the values from one period to the next, you can get an idea of what is happening with inflation and hence interest rates.
If inflation increases, interest rates need to increase accordingly. Inflation is a concern to traders as it impacts the currency and control of supply and demand of money directly. As a result of these factors mentioned above, this is the reason why these numbers are not exactly the same.
CPI and PPI is providing us with a measure of inflation from both sides which are the producer and the consumer. There are two factors to take note of in this figure. This is the headline prices and the core prices. Headline inflation includes the process of food and energy whereas core inflation excludes the prices of food and energy.
Employment is the number of individuals whom are employed. A high unemployment rate implies that less people have jobs and a result less people have a salary. This means that there is now less flow of money into the economy and as a result the economy cannot do well because there is less money available to be spent.
Another way to look at it is that an unemployment means less money which means that the supply of money in the economy has decreased. A decrease in the supply of money will mean that the economy is not doing well and as a result the currency value will depreciate or go down.
A low unemployment rate means that more people are employed and hence the supply of money is higher and our economy is doing well as people have jobs and are spending more money. A good economy means that growth is evident in the economy and hence the economy is doing well and the currency value accordingly.
Remember that a currency value can be distinguished as a representation of a countries economy. If the economy is doing well, it should imply that the currency value should be increasing and the same applies when it is doing badly.
It is important to remember that in Forex trading we are always comparing two countries or two currencies so this becomes much broader. This is another measure of inflation which focuses on the manufacturing side of the economy and looking at the number of goods being produced.
Another moving indicator which helps market participants anticipate growth in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This index is released on the 1st business day of the month and the ISM is comprised of several sub-indices. This is express based on a number from the value of A reading above 50 means that manufacturing has increased from the previous period whereas a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing have contracted during the period. Since the ISM index captures the amount of goods that are being produced by manufacturers, this is the first sign of what is happening regarding the demand of goods by consumers and expansion in the economy.
Goods need to be produced first before it can be consumed so the ISM index allows us to identify that the economy is either growing or contracting by looking at the amount of goods which are being produced. We cannot consume goods without it being produced. Purchasing Managing Index ISM Manufacturing Sector in Europe They were originally focused on the manufacturing sector but as the evolution of these sectors increased it now also includes the construction and the services sector.
The PMI composite index is an important inductor of the overall performance of a countries bloc economy. Both the PMI and the ISM are important indicators to identify if there is growth or lack of growth in an economy since they represent amounts of goods being manufactured. Monthly survey of over households, the purpose of which is to gauge the financial health, spending power and confidence of the average consumer.
The consumer will normally adjust spending habits depending on how optimistic they feel about the economy pulling back to save and spend less when the economy is doing bad and vice versa. This gives good insight into what is happening in the economy and hence able to determine good turning points and trades.
The Commodity Price Index tracks the changes in the prices of commodities such as oils, minerals and metals. This is more relevant for countries which are resourceful in these commodities such as Canada Oil and Australia Gold. An increase or decrease in this index is dependent on whether a country is an importer or exporter of the particular commodity. For example, Canada is a big exporter of crude oil. As a result when the price of Oil increases it means that Canada will receive more revenue for each barrel of oil that it exports.
As a result there will be more money to flow into their economy and their economy will grow accordingly leading to an appreciation of their currency. The United States however is a major importer of oil so if oil prices increase, it means that they will pay more money for a barrel of oil as a result of this increase. This means that less money is available in the economy and it also means that they will have to increase the price of petrol and pass it on to consumers which is negative for the economy leading to a depreciation of their currency value.
A negative balance indicates that the number of goods which were imported is more than the number of goods which are exported and as a result the country has experienced a trade deficit. A positive balance indicates that the number of goods which were exported is more than the number of goods which were imported and as a result the country has experienced a trade surplus. A trade surplus means that there is an increased demand for the currency whereas a trade deficit means that there is an increased supply of the currency.
An increased demand for the currency means an appreciation of its value whereas a trade deficit could lead to a depreciation. This is the number one determine factors of the movement of a currencies value. All of the economic indicators mentioned above gives insight into what the central bank will do regarding interest rates.
As we discussed earlier, the central bank can control the demand and supply of money by increasing or decreasing interest rates accordingly. Bear in mind that an investor would want to have or own a currency which has the highest return. An increase in interest rates means two things. An increase in interest rates means that the consumer now pays a higher rate for their debt and as a result their disposable income has decreased.
They now have a higher demand for money and require more money to purchase the same amount of goods and hence the currency value has increased accordingly. An increase in interest rates means that he will receive more income or return on his investment.
As a result this means that the supply of money has increased because investors would put more of their money to generate a return accordingly. Events leading up to interest rate changes will create drastic moves in the forex market for the particular currency pair.
Sometimes even if information is leaked it will create extremely large movements in the market so it is important to understand this. Generally, the information regarding interest rates is public information so it allows us to get insights into what is happening and take advantage of these opportunities.
This is a method which is a type of monetary policy employed by a central bank of an economy to control inflation and interest rates. There are numerous reasons and methods that this is done but basically what the central bank is doing is buying non-treasury securities in the country in order to inject a supply of money into a specific economy to help boost the economy. A bond is a debt contract similar to an IOU agreement issued by the government when it needs to borrow money.
Governments issue bonds in order to boost the economy or raise capital to operate the government of new projects to create employment, stimulate monetary policy. If you own a government bond, the government has essentially borrowed money from you.
If the government of one country is offering a higher bond yield then another country, it means that the demand for the first currency is much higher which increases the price. Furthermore, it means that investors want to put their money into the country which yields a higher return. Hence the demand for that currency has increased and so should its currency value. The bond spread is the difference in the bond yields between two different countries. By monitoring these spreads and expectations for interest rate changes, you can identify where the currency pairs are headed.
If one country is offering a higher yield on its bonds, it means that there is a higher demand for that specific currency pair over the other currency pair and hence the demand for that currency has increased which hence increases the pair accordingly. S treasuries, traders startto purchase more of the AUD and go long.
From the above we can see that the forex markets are affected by many different things fundamentally. Furthermore, there are numerous other smaller indicators which can affect the markets accordingly also dependent upon how significant the information is and the effect accordingly. As a guideline, it is always important to anticipate and think about how this will affect the demand and supply of money as a result of the event that has occurred. For example, in September when the twin towers collapsed, the dollar plummeted as a result.
If we start think about the effect this has on the demand and supply of money it basically means that during that period, the supply of money decreased drastically as people we unable to trade on that day and therefore the currency value will decrease. One of the big problems for forex traders trading the NFP is the price whipsaws.
Price whipsaws can happen a few minutes before the news is released, this may be due to traders taking positions or exiting positions prior to the news being released and it can also happen a few seconds after the news is released. First lets answer the question as to what exactly do we mean by Elliott Wave Trading. Simply put, it is based on the Elliott Wave Principle.
It is a form of technical analysis that traders use to analyze various financial market cycles and make predictions on future trends. This is done by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows, and other collective factors which we will discuss in more detail. The name comes from Ralph Nelson Elliott. This is why you may have already heard of the Elliott Wave Principle even if you have no experience in Forex, as it was originally applied to stocks and commodities.
Ralph Elliott proposed that the market prices unfold in specific patterns, which we affectionately refer to as Elliott Waves. We will be showing examples and exactly how to find waves and use them how to make predictions, but before we get there we need to understand what it is and how we can use it in our trading toolkit. These methods are great and a lot of traders have a lot of success with these. But they do fall short in certain areas.
The largest point is understanding the current price action and how it fits in to the much bigger picture in the market. Imagine you have a bullish crossover that has formed from your moving averages. It is indicating that the trend is turning up, and that is incredibly useful. With an understanding of Elliott Wave Trading you will be able to figure out whether or not it is a new trend, and make more accurate predictions as to how far it will go.
As well as potential income. Elliott Wave Trading can either completely replace your existing trading strategy, or you can use it to enhance your existing strategy. Because it does not rely on any indicators and teaches you how to read more in to the chart formations and patterns, it can benefit your existing strategies as either a confirmation for a trade or to help manage existing trades and squeeze more profits out.
There are Elliott Wave indicators for various platforms available. However, I feel that this sort of knowledge is best when the trader has a complete understanding of it and does not need to rely on indicators. You will soon find yourself spotting wave formations just by practicing it.
This will allow you to easily add on to your existing strategies. But I do find it useful for people to understand what they are, and how it applies to Elliott Wave. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. You can clearly see the general shape of the snow flake.
You can see the repetitions, and how all the angles are very similar across the entire structure. Now if we have a closer look at just one piece of it, we can see that the same shapes and patterns that make up the whole also exist inside each of the smaller pieces. If we could put this snowflake under a microscope we would see the same patterns even in the microscopic scale. The reason I bring this up is that we often see the Forex market working in a very similar fashion.
And it is a good idea to never forget about the big picture. We often focus on the right now, that we forget about the larger trend. Elliott Wave Trading helps a lot with this. Some of these definitions and sets of rules can be a little tricky to understand at first. So we will go through it slowly and show images to drive it home. Elliott showed that in a trending market, it often moves in what he called a wave pattern.
The first 5 waves are called impulse waves , and the last 3 waves are corrective waves. Here is a short description of what happens during each wave. And please note, there are no guarantees so no matter how perfect you may spot this in real life, keep a level head and manage your risk! Wave 1: The currency pair makes a small move upwards. This is often caused by either positive or negative news for one of the pairs involved.
Because the price of the pair is still relatively low, it is a good time to get in and we often see a good first movement. Wave 2: By this point, the trade has often brought in a good amount of profit for the initial investors. We often see traders closing all of part of their positions to bank their profits. Due to the reduced demand of the currency, we often see a drop. Wave 3: Most often we see the third wave as the largest of the 3 impulse waves. This is where the currency pair has been noticed by many investors and traders, and where the trade is still early enough for significant profits.
With more traders purchasing we often see this wave move further than the others. Wave 4: At this point, many traders feel as though the trade has finished. Significant profits are showing and it would become expensive to enter the trade at this point. So we often see the big players closing off their trades which will show a dip in the market. Wave 5: After a dip in the market, the pair seems more likely to continue an upwards trend.
This is also where the public often sees just how far and fast a particular pair has moved and they start wanting in on the action. You will often see a news report stating just how much a particular currency has gained, and very often this lines up perfectly with the 5 wave. It is also very dangerous to purchase at this wave as we often see people start shorting the pair to push it down.
One thing to keep note of, is that one of the three impulse waves 1, 3 or 5 will always be longer. We call this an extended wave. Originally this was most often the 5 th wave, but as time went by we saw that the extended wave was more and more likely to be the third wave.
So we have looked at the first 5 waves in the wave pattern. This drives the market in a direction. But what about the last 3? These are the corrective waves. You will notice, or at least you will hopefully notice, that it is the same shape except with three more waves on the end.
These waves are all more bearish than they are bullish. When we see a reversal like this in the pattern, we give the final three letters instead of numbers. The exact same principles and rules apply in a bearish market as it does in a bullish market. We just spot the patterns the other way around. Some were simple, and some were incredibly complicated. A lot of traders started feeling that if you were looking for so many different patterns, then of course you would find at least one fitting.
So the majority of traders have adopted the three most successful patterns as the ones to look for, and we find that by following the basic rules of the patterns you actually start finding more. But not so many that you will find these patterns in everything!
The Zig-Zag Formation is when we see very strong moves in price that contradicts the larger trend. So basically the market has moved quickly against the expected direction. Depending on market volatility, we can see these zig-zags appear twice or even three times during a corrective pattern. This is where we see the correction as not moving against the market direction, but rather moving the market sideways.
This is most often spotted after a strong trend and the market is slowing down. In the Flat Formation, the lengths of the waves are usually the same in length. It is extremely rare for any wave to be the exact same length, and the most likely outcome is that the end of B is slightly higher than the beginning of A. Take note that the end of C is the same or very close to the same as the end of A. This is a key point in the flat formation.
Those of you who have covered Price Action will be familiar with this, but it is good to look at it again from the Elliott Wave perspective as well. Triangles are made up of 5 waves that move against the larger trend. They are typically bound by trendlines that shows the shape of a triangle when you draw them in. This is the perfect depiction of the triangle formation, but they can also present themselves as symmetrical, descending, ascending or even expanding triangles.
Elliott Waves are found and used in many different time frames. Some trade as low as the 5 minute time frame, and others as large as the weekly. However, when you are trading a particular time frame, it is important to keep in mind the larger picture. And Elliott Wave works very well for this.
Below is an example just to illustrate how so many formations can occur without you even knowing. I setup my blank chart and drew in vertical lines on the daily chart. I then left those lines and took screen shots of several time frames going lower. You will see how the vertical bars time stamps get wider and wider, and how much goes in within a single day. Hopefully you would have noticed how much actually happens between each line on the daily that you could not see.
Deciding on what time frame to trade is a personal choice of traders, but it is important to always look at the larger picture to help determine the smaller times. When you start drawing in your trend lines on a time frame, you could then go to a smaller time frame and find sets of waves that exist within a single wave from the larger frame.
The below image illustrates this better. You will never see such perfect waves, or at least extremely rarely. But the general concept of waves within waves is true very often. The image illustrates how a single wave can have 5 full waves in it. Sometimes more and sometimes less. Often times a single impulse wave will contain your 5 small impulse waves, and the following corrective wave has three corrective waves.
This would give us the wave pattern. Elliott Wave Traders in the community have assigned several categories to the waves to help reflect the length of time a wave has or could exist. The largest being the Grand Super Cycle. The idea is that the grand supercycle is the biggest picture of them all.
That will exist over the period of an entire civilization. Now there is no way that we can actually test that, and I have never come across a trader who actually considers it as a viable option. Most of my trading, and trading of people I know, is placed in the Minute cycle, using the Intermediate as our confirmation for bigger picture. Things never look as good in reality as they do when I draw in perfect shapes. They are not always obvious, but as you practice you will start getting better and better at spotting in.
In the video tutorials if you purchased the full course you will see several examples of finding it. To take some of the guess work out, we need a few simple rules. There are three important rules to stick to, followed by some rules that can be bent a little.
If you stick to those rules, you are almost completely set. If a wave follows those basic rules, it will be moving relatively quickly in the market showing us a strong trend. This is what we want to see. Here is the picture again of a perfect shape for you to look at while double checking those rules. Followed by some guidelines. Sometimes the 5 th wave does not pass the end of wave three. Wave 3 is most often very long and sharp. This can distort the pattern significantly, but will still abide by the rules.
I found a recent trade I paced using this method, took some screenshots and I will talk you through the process. Waiting for big trades like this allows me to carry on with life, you may choose to do smaller time frames. Try not to go lower than 30 minutes. So I spotted this potential setup, drew in the lines and spotted a very good reason not to consider this an Elliott Wave.
Stop reading here if you want to figure it out for yourself, or read on if you want the answer now. Did you find it? Hopefully you did, but did you see two reasons? This is one of the must not be broken rules. The second, and less obvious to most, is that the third impulse wave is the shortest. This is where I was kicking myself, because trading that retracement could have been fantastic. However, experience shows that when I stick to the rules I am more profitable in the long run.
This time it could have succeeded, but we did not know that and I had a lower chance of success. However, a near perfect first 5 waves of Elliott Wave formed over the next few days as seen above. Wave 2 did not even come close to the start of Wave 1. Wave 4 did not even come close to the price range of Wave 1.
All three main rules ticked. Even the guidelines were mostly followed, and the end of wave 5 we had a great short pinbar see my courses on Candle Stick Formation for more detail. I place my trade just a few pips above the end of Wave 5, which was approximately 30 pips from entry. Then this happened. The end of Wave C maxed out around pips profit. To confirm it was the end of the wave we have to hold the trade a bit longer, and I lost about 30 pips of potential profit. Closing the trade around pips profit.
The last image shows the formation. The first 5 impulse waves, followed by the corrective waves. Now if you look at the bigger picture in a larger time frame, and it confirms that we still have a bullish market, it means we are likely to start forming a new I moved the chart over so you could see more in to what happened.
Try to spot the close of Wave C, and see what happened after it. While it did not create a good first 5 waves according to Elliott Wave trading, I still entered at the close of C and made profit most of the way up. For those of you who already understand Candlestick formations, you will notice a near perfect long pinbar at the end of C. As well as a bullish engulfing pattern about 10 candles after.
Ralph Vince is a well-known financial investor. He performed a very famous experiment known as the Ralph Vince experiment. He took 40 PhD. Now, these forty people all had doctorates, but Mr. Vince made sure that none of their doctorates involved any sort of background in mathematical statistics or trading. The rules were simple. When they won, they won the amount of money they risked.
When they lost, they lost the amount of money they risked. So, after all 40 students had completed their trades, how many do you think made money? The odds were in their favour, so why did they lose money? Why only two students out of forty were able to win? It doesn't make any sense! It is not the strategy — it is the trader who fails. That's the truth. The experiment shows that most traders fail even if they are trading a winning trading system.
We want to give you a clear answer as to why most people fail to make money consistently. Imagine you are one of the students. And you feel rich You are praying to win. But what happens if you lose again? You become very angry and you want your money back immediately! This is the worst situation — you let your emotions gain control of your trading decisions.
From that point on, you will probably never recover your money back and the chances are that you will blow out the whole account. You will bet more and more in the hope of winning back all that you have lost in one single trade. If that lucky trade makes you rich, then good luck! But please realize that you cannot make a living from trading if you act like a spread gambler.
You need to follow strict money management rules to succeed as a trader. You are probably bombarded with guaranteed money making methods all the time. When someone can't succeed, he thinks that the methods don't work or specifically don't work for him or her. These traders are locked in a vicious circle.
And unfortunately, they leave one method and go looking for another one. They are wasting time and energy in searching for the Holy Grail that will make them rich. They think that making a huge amount of money is very hard. What a joke! If you understand the basic psychology of trading, you will be light years ahead of the losing traders.
The shortest path to becoming successful is to study your own psychology. We and our students often say that trading is the easiest way to make money. Most people simply can't believe this. If trading were so easy, why are there so many traders not making money? They are studying hard, reading all the newspapers and magazines about trading, they are discussing trading techniques on the forums but still they are not making money. They are all making the same mistake! Some of them are extremely stubborn and they won't accept that it is psychology, discipline and proper money management that distinguishes good traders from bad traders.
Not economic education or the amount of effort put into trading. Most of our students succeed in just a few months studying our methods. These who succeed have read this book several times. Finally, they have been able to fulfil their dreams.
So what's the problem that is causing some traders not to make money? What is in reality a trading strategy? A strategy gives you entry and exit points based on some sort of information charts, indicators, fundamentals, etc.
You know when to enter the market and when to exit. But something is missing here You need to know how many mini lots, lots or contracts to open every time. This is in fact the most important part of a successful trading strategy. To make things clear, let's talk about Gambler George and Trader Tim.
It is important to understand the difference between them, so read carefully. George is trading because he has heard somewhere that he can make a large amount of money quickly. When George is winning, he stays calm and bets the same amount of money on every trade. When he feels rich, he is afraid of losing his hard earned money. So he bets a smaller amount of money on the next trade.
When he is losing, he becomes angry. He bets a larger amount of money to recover the losses quickly. George risks less when he is winning and risks more when he is losing. Tim is a serious trader. He makes exactly the opposite decisions. When he is winning, he bets more. When he is losing, he bets less. It sounds really strange and counter-intuitive, so why is he doing this? Because his money management tells him so. He doesn't let his emotions control him and his decisions. He doesn't play like everyman.
He acts like a money making machine. If you can manage the downside of trading currencies then the market will take care of the upside. Managing the downside takes discipline and planning, but it enables you to control your emotions and keep your trading account in profit. We have countless examples of traders who were new to trading Forex and they jumped in without any understanding, funding a trading account with money they could not afford to lose and placing the entire account at risk on the very first trade.
Not surprisingly the money was swallowed by the market in an instant and they quit trading. We have other stories of traders who without any effort were lucky to win their first few trades and then felt they could not lose. They increased their trade size, did not apply any risk management using stop loss orders and went on holiday only to return and find their account was empty.
Then there is the millionaire businessman who felt he had the same touch with trading as he did with business. So are you suitably scared? The purpose of this is not to create fear in you but to impress upon you the need for understanding the risks you face in trading so you can have a plan to limit or remove the risk. In this way trading becomes acceptable, manageable and you are able to make a profit. This is not the same with trading. If we follow the same principle in trading Forex and enter a trade without knowing the size of our order; that is to say how much currency we have bought or sold, then we do not know how much profit or loss we will realise for every point the currency moves.
So if you want to be able to trade Forex profitably it is critical that you understand how the market moves, how you can lose money quickly and easily and therefore how to protect your trading account from big losses. Our risk in trading is not just our trade planning and application of our strategies as it covers a host of other factors that can affect our trades and how we execute them. The following list is not exhaustive but covers the majority or Risks that may impact our trades:.
Such as the Japanese Tsunami or Euro Collapse. Use these events to influence the trades you take. For example sell short the Euro and Exit to cash any Japanese Yen trades until the impact of the Tsunami is known. We have no way of knowing how true this is, however from personal experience We know that short term trading puts us under emotional pressures that negatively impact our trading. We would recommend longer term trading to start with and once you have proven you can generate a profit with swing trading trading over several days to several weeks , then you may want to explore day trading trading within a day.
If you are not well then seek medical attention and stay away from the market. It will keep the money in your account! If we believe we will fail and if we talk negatively to ourselves then we are not in the right mind to trade. We need to prepare the mind for trading before sitting at the computer. Go for a run, have music playing to lift spirits and be in a positive and clear thinking mindset.
While it is good to create a pleasant atmosphere to trade in, such as a light room and background music it is important that you do not get unwanted distractions. So disconnect the phone, put the cell phone on silent, and tell your family not to disturb you for the next 2 hours and so on. There are many different ways and methods of reading the markets to plan for trade entries and exits.
Test the systems you learn to find the ones you can read and use and that have high probabilities of success. Trading like gambling taps into our ego so that we only recognise our winning trades and can exclude our losing trades. It can be easy to believe we are better at trading than our profits show.
To enable us to overcome this a trade journal records all our trades and identifies where we can improve. If we have a dislike to lose or we have experienced a series of losing trades, then it can create in us a fear to enter trades for fear of losing.
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It should be an experience that […]. How to get: Open a new account even existing clients by filling out the promotional form online, and make a deposit. Trade as usually so you get the rebates Withdrawal: Yes. Bonus: 30 USD no-deposit bonus. Verify it. Withdrawal: No, only the profits can be withdrawn after trading no less than 5 lots in no more than 90 days.
Bonus: Get 10 points for every lot traded. These points can be exchanged for electronics, gadgets, air tickets, special offers, etc. How to get: Send an email requesting to participate and trade. How to get: Request to participate and trade at least 5 times per month.
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The cost of the insurance […]. Basically, you get money without risking your own. How to get: Apply to the program and send your account statements of 3 months or more. Pass the evaluation, documentation and […]. This means that in case you incur in losses, you will get a refund for them in the form of a bonus. How to get: Open a new account, verify it and […]. Offer: Get for free daily trading signals. The signals include a suggested instrument, what direction to take, the price to open the position, the SL and TP level.
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Available to: new clients. How to get: register a new Mini account. How to get: Verify an account and request it. Withdrawal: Yes, after 5 lots have been traded. Contest dates: Runs every week. Withdrawal: No, only profits made with the bonus can be withdrawn after trading 1.
Bonus: Get an account with free funds in it. How to get: Open a new account and choose to participate in the promotion. Read an article and answer a questionnaire. This will take you around 5 minutes, and, after completing it, […]. Withdrawal: Both, the bonus and profits obtained with it can be withdrawn after trading no less than 10 lots.
How to get: Log in to your account it is needed to not have it funded or open a new one, click to validate your phone and enter your personal details. Input your mobile number and select to validate […]. Dates: Until January 20, Available to: New clients, except those with MT5 accounts and Cents accounts. How to get: Open a new account using the promotional form online and fully verify it. How to get: Open a new MT4. DirectFX or MT4.
Select the account where you will get the bonus and scan the QR code using the Welcome Bonus application. Withdrawal: You can only withdraw profits made with the […]. Dates: December 31, Banner […]. How to get: Complete the application online. Withdrawal: Yes, after 2 lots are traded. Withdrawal: trade over 2 lots to withdraw profits.
The bonus is not withdrawable. How to get: Open a challenge account and request it. Withdrawal: Only profits can be withdrawn after trading at least 10 lots and no earlier than 3 months after opening the account. How to get: Register an account and request it. Withdrawal:Only profits can be withdrawn and after volume trading conditions have been met.
Available to: New clients from Ukraine. How to get: Open an FxCent account, send the required documentation to verify it and send an application. Withdrawal: Only profits can be withdrawn. How to get: Open a new Alpha Micro account. Verify it and make a deposit. How to get: Open a new Classic or Direct account and verify it. Show a statement from your previous broker or investment password to verify your […].
Available to: New clients using the VertexFX platform. Send a request to get your bonus. You need to have your account verified to get the bonus. Other conditions: If the bonus exceeds […]. Withdrawal: Profit withdrawal from the account cancels the bonus. Other conditions: Bonus funds are given for three months. How to get: Make a deposit. Withdrawal: Profits can be withdrawn, but not the bonus itself. Other conditions: Number of bonus accruals for each customer is not limited.
Number of simultaneously acting […].